Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1490 at 09:49, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1490 Southwest	DAL 09:49	SDF 12:59	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 46m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	7h 27m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 42m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	DAL 11:26 → HOU 12:47WN 17	2h 48m Houston	HOU 15:35 → SDF 18:55WN 2119	6h 29m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831	6h 03m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	4h 47m	74%	60%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	54m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	4h 30m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON