Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1462 at 07:28, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1462 Southwest	DAL 07:28	SFO 09:15	20%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	10h 45m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823	9h 24m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	10h 37m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SFO 20:17DL 495	9h 58m	95%	62%
Southwest Details →	DAL 08:28 → LAS 09:18WN 1318	2h 47m Las Vegas	LAS 12:05 → SFO 13:46WN 2620	7h 18m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → SFO 00:10 +1WN 2199	9h 03m	89%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON