Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4851 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4851 Southwest	DAL 09:45	SLC 11:34	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 298 Southwest	DAL 20:45	SLC 22:37	38%	11%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 45m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 11m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	9h 27m	97%	62%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:21 → HOU 15:42WN 31	2h 13m Houston	HOU 17:55 → SLC 20:09WN 244	6h 48m	96%	60%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653	8h 37m	95%	59%
Southwest Details →	DAL 17:07 → MDW 19:25WN 1414	2h 10m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → SLC 00:00 +1WN 3009	7h 53m	95%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON