Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 471 at 14:20, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 471 Southwest	DAL 14:20	TYS 17:29	24%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	53m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	4h 05m	91%	79%
Delta Details →	DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 09m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:04 → TYS 22:08DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor	5h 09m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	5h 25m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	4h 13m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON