tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1260 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1260 Southwest DAL 08:55 VPS 10:54 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1687 Southwest DAL 14:00 VPS 15:57 21% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516 58m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 24m 93% 84%
SouthwestDetails → DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10WN 1628 3h 05m Houston HOU 10:15 → VPS 12:04WN 2153 6h 04m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DAL 10:07 → ATL 13:16DL 441 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 5h 53m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DAL 12:19 → ATL 15:31DL 1115 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 23m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 4h 50m 80% 65%
DeltaDetails → DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 4h 50m 83% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON