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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 790 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 790 DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 790 United Flight history → DFW 06:00 SFO 07:47 11% 3% 0.9% 89%
WN 1435 Southwest DAL 11:25 OAK 13:20 18% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2046 American Flight history → DFW 09:09 SJC 11:06 19% 5% 0.9% 77%
WN 1462 Southwest DAL 07:28 SFO 09:15 20% 8% 0.7% no record
AA 1949 American Flight history → DFW 07:10 SFO 08:53 22% 8% 1.3% 78%
AA 2834 American Flight history → DFW 11:55 SJC 13:52 26% 6% 0.8% 75%
UA 1922 United DFW 09:17 SFO 11:03 27% 11% 0.9% no record
AA 2309 American DFW 08:20 SFO 10:09 27% 10% 1.2% no record
WN 1454 Southwest DAL 21:20 SJC 23:06 32% 12% 0.7% no record
UA 2413 United Flight history → DFW 15:37 SFO 17:45 37% 15% 0.8% 50%
AA 2387 American Flight history → DFW 11:24 SFO 13:06 39% 12% 1.1% 57%
AA 2325 American Flight history → DFW 13:14 SFO 15:03 41% 12% 1.1% 81%worse than usual
AA 364 American Flight history → DFW 20:14 SJC 22:10 45% 10% 0.9% 66%worse than usual
AA 2810 American Flight history → DFW 16:17 SFO 17:59 47% 16% 1.1% 43%
AA 2775 American DFW 22:09 SFO 00:05 47% 13% 1.3% no record
AA 446 American Flight history → DFW 22:59 SFO 00:43 50% 14% 1.3% 50%
AA 2333 American DFW 17:38 SFO 19:33 51% 16% 1.1% no record
UA 2330 United Flight history → DFW 19:53 SFO 21:42 51% 17% 0.8% 71%worse than usual
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history → DFW 20:59 SFO 22:59 53% 22% 2.3% 55%
AA 2522 American Flight history → DFW 20:15 SFO 22:16 53% 16% 1.3% 26%
AA 1430 American Flight history → DFW 19:28 SFO 21:10 58% 16% 1.6% 52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 47m Denver DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 5h 33m 88% 64%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:09 → LAX 08:20DL 439 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → SFO 10:42DL 1715 5h 33m 87% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON