Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1895 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–58%.

Safest bet that day WN 1895 DAL 06:00 → MDW 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1290 DFW 16:36 → ORD 18:54 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1895 Southwest	DAL 06:00	MDW 08:20	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 4755 Southwest	DAL 10:02	MDW 12:21	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1938 American Flight history →	DFW 05:11	ORD 07:39	11%	5%	1.2%	90%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 05:46	ORD 08:05	11%	6%	1.2%	76%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	13%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1858 American	DFW 07:39	ORD 10:12	18%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 328 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	ORD 11:23	20%	7%	1.6%	85%
WN 1412 Southwest	DAL 12:27	MDW 14:46	21%	6%	4.9%	no record
F9 2882 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:33	MDW 11:58	21%	7%	1.6%	65%
UA 1634 United Flight history →	DFW 10:31	ORD 13:01	23%	9%	1.0%	83%
WN 961 Southwest	DAL 13:37	MDW 15:56	24%	8%	7.3%	no record
AA 1251 American	DFW 10:09	ORD 12:37	29%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	29%	16%	1.5%	74%
WN 161 Southwest	DAL 23:12	MDW 01:25	30%	9%	1.7%	no record
WN 1414 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 17:07	MDW 19:25	32%	11%	4.0%	73%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:25	ORD 13:52	33%	12%	2.8%	72%
WN 849 Southwest	DAL 19:50	MDW 22:09	35%	10%	2.2%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	40%	20%	1.9%	63%
F9 3244 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:16	ORD 00:47	42%	18%	3.3%	64%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	42%	19%	2.9%	66%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	44%	23%	1.3%	68%worse than usual
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	44%	18%	1.8%	63%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:15	ORD 21:39	48%	16%	5.9%	66%worse than usual
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:32	ORD 23:50	48%	17%	1.8%	56%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	49%	26%	1.5%	60%
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:49	ORD 18:26	52%	24%	2.0%	no record
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:45	ORD 20:34	52%	24%	2.6%	no record
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:43	ORD 20:27	52%	27%	4.2%	63%worse than usual
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:53	ORD 20:15	55%	29%	1.6%	no record
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:20	ORD 20:47	57%	26%	2.7%	no record
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:36	ORD 18:54	58%	26%	2.6%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON