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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 35 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1628 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–51%.

Safest bet that day WN 1628 DAL 06:00 → HOU 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2438 DFW 17:17 → IAH 18:32 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

WN 1628 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:00 HOU 07:10 5% 2% 2.4% 93%
WN 7 Southwest Flight history → DAL 08:24 HOU 09:47 5% 3% 1.6% 84%
WN 9 Southwest Flight history → DAL 09:20 HOU 10:35 6% 3% 1.3% 84%
WN 17 Southwest Flight history → DAL 11:26 HOU 12:47 10% 3% 1.1% 91%
UA 2260 United Flight history → DFW 05:10 IAH 06:22 13% 6% 1.2% 95%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 07:40 HOU 09:00 15% 3% 2.3% 88%
WN 25 Southwest Flight history → DAL 12:30 HOU 13:45 18% 4% 1.0% 79%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history → DAL 14:21 HOU 15:42 18% 5% 0.9% 80%
UA 2670 United Flight history → DFW 07:00 IAH 08:26 20% 7% 0.9% 72%
WN 35 Southwest Flight history → DAL 15:15 HOU 16:30 21% 5% 0.9% 71%
OO 6382 SkyWest DFW 09:41 HOU 11:00 22% 8% 2.0% no record
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 10:11 IAH 11:25 22% 4% 1.1% 97%worse than usual
UA 1586 United Flight history → DFW 09:46 IAH 11:03 22% 7% 0.7% 82%
OO 6186 SkyWest DFW 12:02 HOU 13:21 24% 9% 1.3% no record
WN 41 Southwest Flight history → DAL 16:52 HOU 18:13 24% 6% 0.8% 68%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 06:57 IAH 08:11 24% 5% 1.9% 69%
MQ 3864 Envoy DFW 22:44 HOU 00:09 27% 5% 1.5% no record
WN 49 Southwest Flight history → DAL 18:35 HOU 19:50 29% 8% 0.8% 58%
WN 55 Southwest Flight history → DAL 20:28 HOU 21:49 30% 7% 0.8% 57%
WN 65 Southwest Flight history → DAL 22:45 HOU 00:06 30% 7% 0.8% 50%
AA 1407 American Flight history → DFW 08:12 IAH 09:28 30% 7% 1.3% 77%
OH 5576 PSA DFW 14:05 IAH 15:23 31% 9% 1.0% no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 18:28 HOU 19:48 31% 7% 1.8% 68%
OO 6252 SkyWest DFW 16:41 HOU 18:05 32% 10% 1.2% no record
UA 2114 United Flight history → DFW 19:34 IAH 20:55 34% 11% 0.8% 84%worse than usual
UA 2682 United Flight history → DFW 16:01 IAH 17:18 35% 11% 0.8% 67%
MQ 3908 Envoy DFW 18:11 IAH 19:25 36% 8% 1.0% no record
AA 1397 American DFW 11:56 IAH 13:11 36% 9% 0.9% no record
AA 3023 American DFW 22:55 IAH 00:14 39% 10% 1.1% no record
UA 1609 United Flight history → DFW 17:36 IAH 18:51 41% 13% 0.8% 60%
AA 1392 American Flight history → DFW 18:36 IAH 19:54 49% 15% 1.0% 50%
AA 2209 American Flight history → DFW 21:10 IAH 22:24 49% 13% 1.0% 48%
AA 2438 American Flight history → DFW 17:17 IAH 18:32 51% 14% 0.9% 60%worse than usual
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DFW 14:15 IAH 15:37 29% 17% 0.0% 71%
UA 4007 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DFW 17:24 IAH 18:48 33% 20% 0.0% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON