tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 47 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2042 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 2042 DAL 06:00 → LAX 07:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2597 DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2042 Southwest DAL 06:00 LAX 07:09 7% 1% 0.7% no record
DL 439 Delta Flight history → DFW 07:09 LAX 08:20 13% 3% 0.9% 92%
AA 1686 American Flight history → DFW 06:58 SNA 08:15 15% 4% 1.0% 90%
WN 1330 Southwest DAL 10:55 BUR 12:18 15% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 3303 American DFW 06:26 LAX 07:44 16% 5% 1.2% no record
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:35 LAX 08:54 18% 5% 1.2% 85%
WN 2515 Southwest DAL 12:00 ONT 13:10 19% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2114 American Flight history → DFW 08:27 SNA 09:43 20% 4% 1.0% 78%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → DFW 13:45 LAX 14:58 20% 4% 0.8% 88%
AA 1820 American Flight history → DFW 08:28 ONT 09:41 20% 4% 1.0% 79%
AA 3317 American Flight history → DFW 07:13 LAX 08:28 20% 4% 1.2% 85%
WN 2378 Southwest DAL 10:01 LAX 11:20 23% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 1939 American DFW 09:35 SNA 10:50 23% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 2926 Southwest DAL 14:05 LGB 15:22 23% 7% 0.6% no record
AA 1996 American Flight history → DFW 08:35 LAX 09:49 24% 5% 1.2% 83%
AA 3181 American DFW 10:58 LAX 12:18 24% 5% 1.1% no record
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history → DFW 08:27 SNA 09:44 25% 7% 1.1% 68%
AA 2956 American Flight history → DFW 10:34 ONT 11:52 26% 6% 1.0% 74%
WN 1228 Southwest DAL 13:28 SNA 14:36 26% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 2635 American Flight history → DFW 12:14 ONT 13:32 27% 7% 1.0% 84%worse than usual
AA 3273 American Flight history → DFW 09:26 LAX 10:41 27% 5% 1.1% 69%
AA 1933 American DFW 11:46 SNA 13:03 27% 6% 1.0% no record
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history → DFW 14:01 LAX 15:26 27% 9% 1.0% 76%
AA 2465 American Flight history → DFW 12:34 SNA 13:52 27% 5% 1.0% 84%worse than usual
AA 1208 American Flight history → DFW 10:16 BUR 11:34 28% 7% 1.3% 75%
AA 2659 American Flight history → DFW 14:45 SNA 16:02 29% 5% 1.1% 80%
AA 1275 American DFW 13:02 LAX 14:18 30% 6% 1.1% no record
AA 348 American Flight history → DFW 21:16 SNA 22:24 31% 4% 1.4% 74%
AA 442 American Flight history → DFW 11:46 LAX 13:04 31% 6% 1.0% 75%
AA 3223 American Flight history → DFW 16:32 SNA 17:50 32% 6% 1.2% 80%worse than usual
DL 948 Delta Flight history → DFW 20:35 LAX 21:50 34% 6% 0.9% 86%worse than usual
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history → DFW 17:26 ONT 18:50 35% 11% 1.3% 79%worse than usual
WN 748 Southwest DAL 14:16 LAX 15:27 35% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 1669 American Flight history → DFW 15:35 LAX 16:52 35% 9% 1.1% 52%
AA 1504 American Flight history → DFW 16:37 LAX 17:54 37% 11% 1.1% 61%
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history → DFW 22:09 LAX 23:33 39% 10% 1.0% 77%worse than usual
AA 806 American Flight history → DFW 19:15 SNA 20:22 39% 6% 1.5% 68%
AA 3006 American Flight history → DFW 17:55 ONT 19:00 42% 11% 1.0% 65%
AA 2038 American DFW 22:43 LAX 00:04 42% 9% 1.3% no record
AA 1695 American DFW 22:39 ONT 23:55 44% 12% 1.0% no record
AA 2043 American DFW 18:37 LAX 19:55 44% 11% 1.4% no record
AA 2125 American DFW 17:38 LAX 18:57 45% 10% 1.1% no record
WN 1373 Southwest DAL 21:07 LAX 22:22 45% 11% 0.6% no record
AA 2147 American DFW 19:59 ONT 21:12 46% 11% 1.1% no record
WN 206 Southwest DAL 22:05 LAX 23:23 48% 11% 0.6% no record
AA 2931 American DFW 20:26 LAX 21:43 51% 10% 1.1% no record
AA 2597 American Flight history → DFW 20:46 BUR 21:58 52% 15% 1.4% 63%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON