Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4827 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 4827 DAL 06:00 → LGA 10:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:45 → EWR 19:30 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4827 Southwest	DAL 06:00	LGA 10:25	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
UA 2215 United	DFW 05:50	EWR 10:12	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:29	10%	3%	1.1%	89%
DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	11%	4%	1.4%	90%
AA 2925 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LGA 10:29	14%	5%	2.0%	72%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 06:54	EWR 11:18	18%	6%	1.4%	81%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	19%	5%	2.0%	83%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	20%	7%	1.8%	76%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	21%	7%	1.5%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	23%	7%	2.0%	75%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	24%	7%	0.9%	75%
AA 2178 American	DFW 09:25	LGA 13:54	26%	8%	2.2%	no record
WN 1385 Southwest	DAL 11:25	LGA 15:49	26%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	28%	10%	1.8%	64%
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LGA 15:14	29%	10%	2.1%	69%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	29%	12%	1.7%	69%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:11	JFK 17:47	31%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 3526 Southwest	DAL 19:05	LGA 23:28	33%	14%	1.1%	no record
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	33%	11%	2.4%	59%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:43	LGA 16:15	34%	11%	1.8%	38%
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	LGA 17:05	35%	11%	1.9%	59%
AA 1806 American	DFW 14:06	LGA 18:47	36%	12%	2.2%	no record
WN 1311 Southwest	DAL 16:05	LGA 20:30	38%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	EWR 16:45	39%	14%	1.3%	69%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	39%	15%	1.2%	78%worse than usual
AA 2434 American	DFW 15:06	LGA 19:47	39%	13%	2.1%	no record
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:01	LGA 23:31	39%	12%	2.3%	no record
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	40%	15%	0.9%	57%
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	40%	15%	2.3%	56%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:11	LGA 19:45	41%	16%	2.9%	61%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	42%	16%	2.2%	54%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:29	EWR 23:12	44%	16%	1.8%	56%
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	LGA 22:25	45%	13%	2.3%	64%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:05	46%	15%	1.1%	64%worse than usual
UA 2461 United	DFW 17:02	EWR 21:43	47%	16%	1.2%	no record
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:45	EWR 19:30	50%	18%	1.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON