Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 443 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 443 DAL 06:00 → BWI 10:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2251 DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 443 Southwest	DAL 06:00	BWI 10:08	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3617 Southwest	DAL 06:20	DCA 10:15	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1333 Southwest	DAL 07:22	BWI 11:21	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	9%	3%	1.1%	90%
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	10%	3%	1.1%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	13%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	BWI 11:04	14%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	16%	4%	1.0%	85%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:26	IAD 11:28	18%	6%	1.0%	84%
WN 113 Southwest	DAL 10:25	DCA 14:17	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BWI 11:28	19%	6%	1.4%	73%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:09	IAD 14:03	20%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:31	DCA 13:27	21%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	22%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 2669 American	DFW 10:59	BWI 15:18	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 952 Southwest	DAL 12:54	BWI 17:04	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	26%	7%	1.2%	70%
WN 4418 Southwest	DAL 14:20	DCA 18:12	29%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 1360 Southwest	DAL 20:10	DCA 00:02	35%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 2767 Southwest	DAL 16:00	BWI 19:58	35%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 14:51	IAD 19:02	35%	8%	1.1%	70%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	35%	10%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 2520 American	DFW 15:01	DCA 19:20	36%	10%	1.4%	no record
WN 247 Southwest	DAL 20:40	BWI 00:44	37%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2805 American Flight history →	DFW 15:25	BWI 19:45	40%	11%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
AA 2254 American	DFW 20:53	IAD 00:49	41%	7%	1.2%	no record
WN 1344 Southwest	DAL 16:52	DCA 20:43	41%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	44%	10%	1.8%	64%
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	44%	11%	1.7%	62%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	45%	13%	1.5%	65%worse than usual
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	47%	14%	1.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON