tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1235 at 09:01, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1235 United Flight history → DAY 09:01 DEN 10:04 9% 4% 0.7% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Dayton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet 1h 04m Chicago ORD 06:59 → DEN 08:49UA 1217 5h 09m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:02 → PHL 08:01AA 5229 · flown by PSA 1h 30m Philadelphia PHL 09:31 → DEN 11:29AA 1313 7h 27m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 11:56 → DEN 13:36AA 1662 9h 05m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → DAY 19:43 → IAD 21:25UA 4267 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 6h 47m 86% 71%
UnitedDetails → DAY 10:23 → IAD 11:53UA 4181 · flown by GoJet 2h 42m Dulles IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 8h 06m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 13:32 → DEN 15:11AA 696 8h 41m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → DAY 07:09 → DFW 08:50AA 5157 · flown by PSA 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359 6h 37m 96% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON