Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3686 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–56%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3686 DAY 05:31 → ORD 05:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5247 DAY 18:00 → ORD 18:18 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3686 Envoy	DAY 05:31	ORD 05:48	12%	3%	1.5%	no record
MQ 3949 Envoy	DAY 12:25	ORD 12:57	23%	7%	1.7%	no record
OO 4806 SkyWest	DAY 11:33	ORD 11:51	24%	8%	2.9%	no record
MQ 3951 Envoy	DAY 19:09	ORD 19:26	47%	15%	3.8%	no record
OO 5247 SkyWest	DAY 18:00	ORD 18:18	56%	19%	7.6%	no record
UA 4415 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 05:40	ORD 05:55	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 4402 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 07:15	ORD 07:55	17%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 4453 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DAY 11:39	ORD 12:05	21%	12%	2.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON