Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 5229 at 06:02, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DAY 06:02	PHL 08:01	8%	5%	1.3%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DAY 05:40 → ORD 05:55UA 4415 · flown by GoJet	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → PHL 12:16UA 729	6h 36m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DAY 06:00 → ATL 07:40DL 3140	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	95%	85%
American Details →	DAY 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5234 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 09:26 → PHL 11:15AA 2565	4h 44m	93%	77%
American Details →	DAY 08:30 → CLT 10:19AA 5242 · flown by PSA	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 20m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	DAY 11:23 → ATL 13:02DL 3108	58m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	4h 41m	92%	72%
United Details →	DAY 07:15 → ORD 07:55UA 4402 · flown by GoJet	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	7h 32m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	DAY 15:56 → ATL 17:40DL 2763	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:28DL 1174	6h 32m	97%	68%
American Details →	DAY 11:31 → CLT 13:08AA 5385 · flown by PSA	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 17:04 → PHL 19:01AA 864	7h 30m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON