Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1482 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1482 DCA 06:55 → ATL 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 850 DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1482 Southwest	DCA 06:55	ATL 08:55	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 410 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	ATL 07:41	7%	3%	0.8%	95%
DL 824 Delta	DCA 06:59	ATL 08:56	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:08	ATL 13:18	11%	3%	0.7%	32%
YX 4576 Republic	DCA 13:58	ATL 16:09	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	DCA 08:21	ATL 10:24	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	DCA 10:16	ATL 12:06	15%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 455 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:00	ATL 10:50	15%	4%	0.8%	86%
WN 3806 Southwest	DCA 12:15	ATL 14:15	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 343 Delta Flight history →	DCA 08:00	ATL 09:51	17%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2003 Delta	DCA 14:00	ATL 15:58	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
YX 4682 Republic	DCA 20:23	ATL 22:33	21%	8%	1.8%	no record
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:27	ATL 14:15	23%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	DCA 20:50	ATL 23:00	23%	9%	1.2%	76%
YX 4735 Republic	DCA 18:10	ATL 20:15	26%	7%	1.5%	no record
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:00	ATL 18:06	27%	8%	1.0%	73%
WN 1484 Southwest	DCA 16:56	ATL 18:57	29%	9%	1.0%	no record
DL 1007 Delta Flight history →	DCA 19:36	ATL 21:35	31%	9%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:30	ATL 20:35	33%	9%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON