tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3260 Southwest DCA 16:45 AUS 19:24 30% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 35m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 59m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 1h 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 7h 20m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 03m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 45m New York JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323 9h 04m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56AA 1178 1h 53m Miami MIA 09:49 → AUS 11:57AA 812 7h 57m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 52m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 8h 12m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 8h 09m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 48m Newark EWR 15:10 → AUS 18:11UA 2289 6h 11m 55% 38%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 49m Newark EWR 18:52 → AUS 21:57UA 1032 6h 27m 47% 28%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:59 → ORD 18:08AA 1189 1h 02m Chicago ORD 19:10 → AUS 22:02AA 2433 6h 03m 49% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON