Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5213 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:05	AVL 11:45	18%	5%	1.2%	79%
OH 5053 PSA	DCA 18:06	AVL 19:38	34%	14%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	56m Boston	BOS 09:35 → AVL 12:11DL 5778 · flown by Republic	5h 11m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → AVL 11:07DL 3059	5h 07m	98%	86%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → AVL 10:19AA 6030 · flown by Piedmont	3h 56m	96%	82%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 49m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182	5h 25m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	5h 40m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:19DL 3101	4h 52m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	5h 16m	88%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	1h 31m Newark	EWR 20:59 → AVL 23:15UA 4405 · flown by GoJet	5h 20m	72%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON