Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5079 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day OH 5079 DCA 10:04 → BDL 11:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 974 DCA 22:47 → BDL 00:12 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5079 PSA	DCA 10:04	BDL 11:36	13%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	BDL 14:27	17%	7%	1.1%	68%
OH 5058 PSA	DCA 17:46	BDL 19:23	26%	11%	1.9%	no record
AA 974 American Flight history →	DCA 22:47	BDL 00:12	32%	8%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON