Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5332 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5332 DCA 08:57 → BHM 10:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5226 DCA 15:16 → BHM 16:35 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:57	BHM 10:15	20%	8%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
AA 5090 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:39	BHM 22:57	31%	17%	1.7%	63%
OH 5226 PSA	DCA 15:16	BHM 16:35	33%	15%	1.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	3h 25m	86%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON