Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1485 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1485 DCA 06:00 → BNA 06:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4523 DCA 17:35 → BNA 18:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1485 Southwest	DCA 06:00	BNA 06:56	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:08	BNA 11:13	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 2980 Southwest	DCA 09:00	BNA 09:56	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:47	BNA 10:01	15%	5%	1.4%	64%
WN 2318 Southwest	DCA 12:00	BNA 12:56	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	19%	5%	0.8%	76%
YX 4367 Republic	DCA 21:57	BNA 23:03	19%	7%	1.7%	no record
MQ 4276 Envoy	DCA 13:58	BNA 14:57	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	23%	7%	1.8%	79%
WN 546 Southwest	DCA 15:25	BNA 16:22	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 17:46	BNA 18:58	34%	13%	1.7%	61%
WN 4523 Southwest	DCA 17:35	BNA 18:31	35%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON