Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4669 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 4669 DCA 06:17 → BOS 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2954 DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4669 Republic	DCA 06:17	BOS 07:59	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5698 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:00	BOS 08:39	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:14	BOS 11:56	7%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:29	BOS 10:15	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:47	BOS 13:27	9%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:40	BOS 11:22	11%	4%	0.8%	50%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:55	BOS 14:40	12%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 1164 American	DCA 08:20	BOS 09:58	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1015 American Flight history →	DCA 10:40	BOS 12:18	13%	6%	0.8%	75%
B6 554 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 08:44	BOS 10:20	13%	5%	0.8%	88%
B6 2454 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 10:56	BOS 12:35	14%	7%	0.9%	82%
YX 5863 Republic	DCA 23:10	BOS 00:42	14%	6%	1.7%	no record
YX 4665 Republic	DCA 12:59	BOS 14:41	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:15	BOS 17:02	19%	7%	1.1%	61%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:00	BOS 20:42	19%	8%	1.6%	73%
MQ 3523 Envoy	DCA 22:31	BOS 00:11	22%	9%	2.1%	no record
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:30	BOS 20:29	23%	10%	1.8%	62%
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:42	24%	9%	1.5%	59%
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 13:25	BOS 14:59	25%	15%	0.9%	68%
AA 955 American	DCA 15:17	BOS 17:12	29%	11%	0.9%	no record
B6 1354 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 14:25	BOS 16:00	32%	18%	0.9%	49%
B6 1854 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:59	BOS 21:38	34%	21%	1.3%	66%
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:47	35%	15%	1.1%	43%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:21	BOS 21:00	35%	21%	1.3%	50%
B6 2954 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:41	36%	21%	1.2%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON