Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4647 at 09:41 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 DCA 09:41 → BUF 11:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OH 5237 DCA 16:02 → BUF 17:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:41	BUF 11:11	10%	3%	0.8%	62%
OH 5051 PSA	DCA 12:25	BUF 13:52	19%	7%	1.4%	no record
OH 5268 PSA	DCA 23:44	BUF 01:20	26%	11%	2.9%	no record
OH 5237 PSA	DCA 16:02	BUF 17:42	31%	12%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON