tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OH 5061 at 21:06, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5061 PSA DCA 21:06 CHA 23:02 35% 16% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet 6h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737 6h 22m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont 6h 31m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141 6h 02m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:19 → CLT 16:49AA 2040 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 6h 33m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → CHA 17:41DL 3124 5h 14m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:12DL 1366 6h 12m 95% 70%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:39 → LGA 09:55DL 5772 · flown by Republic 3h 50m New York LGA 13:45 → CHA 16:04DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor 7h 27m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 47m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 4h 02m 59% 46%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic 51m New York LGA 19:50 → CHA 22:22DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor 4h 42m 61% 34%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 58m Chicago ORD 17:50 → CHA 20:49UA 4507 · flown by GoJet 5h 19m 55% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON