Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 11:40, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	DCA 11:40	CID 13:11	12%	3%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 14:55 → CID 16:08DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	5h 08m	90%	77%
American Details →	DCA 09:57 → DFW 12:22AA 795	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:03 → CID 17:10AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	8h 13m	99%	74%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → CID 23:37AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	9h 24m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → CID 23:27DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 28m	85%	71%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:58 → CID 00:05 +1DL 2626	6h 35m	88%	67%
American Details →	DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:14 → CID 21:21AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 37m	97%	65%
American Details →	DCA 15:19 → CLT 16:49AA 2040	3h 56m Charlotte	CLT 20:45 → CID 22:03AA 1887	7h 44m	94%	57%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 21:44 → CID 22:53UA 254	6h 48m	91%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 20:45 → CID 22:03AA 1887	5h 13m	71%	43%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 21:44 → CID 22:53UA 254	4h 43m	61%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON