Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3915 at 13:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3915 DCA 13:59 → CLE 15:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5091 DCA 17:40 → CLE 19:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3915 Envoy	DCA 13:59	CLE 15:25	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:42	CLE 13:13	20%	5%	1.5%	76%
AA 5613 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:25	CLE 23:56	32%	11%	2.7%	57%
OH 5091 PSA	DCA 17:40	CLE 19:20	33%	11%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON