Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 580 at 04:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 580 DCA 04:54 → CLT 06:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2002 DCA 19:27 → CLT 21:02 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 580 American	DCA 04:54	CLT 06:24	7%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 1521 American Flight history →	DCA 06:23	CLT 07:53	8%	4%	1.8%	79%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	12%	5%	1.9%	86%
AA 761 American	DCA 11:51	CLT 13:22	15%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:19	CLT 16:49	25%	8%	1.1%	79%
OH 5527 PSA	DCA 12:59	CLT 14:32	27%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	32%	12%	1.6%	71%
AA 2002 American	DCA 19:27	CLT 21:02	35%	12%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON