Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4627 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 DCA 07:29 → CMH 09:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3441 DCA 22:24 → CMH 23:51 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:29	CMH 09:03	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:14	CMH 11:48	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
YX 4777 Republic	DCA 13:56	CMH 15:30	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2056 Southwest	DCA 12:00	CMH 13:27	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:13	CMH 18:53	17%	5%	1.4%	73%
AA 3441 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:24	CMH 23:51	20%	6%	2.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON