tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4435 at 12:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4435 Republic DCA 12:03 DSM 13:56 9% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 22:11 DSM 00:03 30% 16% 2.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704 5h 45m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094 6h 34m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DSM 14:10UA 6166 · flown by Mesa 9h 10m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor 4h 44m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 13m Chicago ORD 08:59 → DSM 10:18UA 466 4h 48m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:09 → DSM 10:37AA 2962 5h 14m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 5h 54m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 6h 25m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 09:57 → DFW 12:22AA 795 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:11 → DSM 15:11AA 1664 6h 14m 74% 49%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:59 → IAH 19:25UA 1785 47m Houston IAH 20:12 → DSM 22:35UA 1780 6h 36m 71% 48%
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 53m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 4h 46m 41% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON