Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2869 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1454 DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	DTW 07:29	5%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	14%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:22	DTW 11:06	18%	8%	1.3%	85%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	18%	6%	0.9%	87%
DL 1683 Delta	DCA 19:55	DTW 21:29	30%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 5597 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:00	DTW 22:44	31%	14%	2.4%	51%
OH 5098 PSA	DCA 15:13	DTW 17:00	32%	11%	1.9%	no record
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	32%	10%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON