tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4789 Republic DCA 11:15 ECP 12:47 12% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 2h 01m Charlotte CLT 09:54 → ECP 10:48AA 5262 · flown by PSA 5h 25m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 56m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:26AA 2007 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 38m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 28m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 22:55 → ECP 23:37AA 5633 · flown by PSA 6h 47m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 6h 07m 92% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON