tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:27, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4389 Republic DCA 09:04 EYW 12:23 15% 3% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:06 → EYW 11:00DL 1281 5h 00m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 7h 07m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 09:58 → EYW 12:20AA 1816 5h 57m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 7h 24m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472 5h 23m 90% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 1h 11m Miami MIA 12:28 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy 5h 19m 87% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON