Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1979 DCA 19:03 → FLL 21:50 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	11%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 07:58	FLL 10:45	23%	6%	2.3%	89%worse than usual
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	26%	7%	2.9%	81%
WN 3648 Southwest	DCA 16:00	FLL 18:52	31%	11%	1.2%	no record
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:38	FLL 19:25	43%	18%	1.8%	61%
B6 1979 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:03	FLL 21:50	44%	18%	1.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON