tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5039 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 11:29 GRR 13:24 23% 8% 1.8% 73%
AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 20:06 GRR 22:03 39% 20% 6.3% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44DL 2547 5h 44m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:52 → LGA 08:13AA 4403 · flown by Republic 1h 39m New York LGA 09:52 → GRR 12:07AA 4775 · flown by Republic 5h 15m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 2h 51m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 20m 99% 81%
FrontierDetails → DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01F9 685 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:42 → GRR 15:21F9 1248 8h 21m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 26m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 4h 00m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 7h 33m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 58m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:38 → ORD 08:45UA 441 3h 55m Chicago ORD 12:40 → GRR 14:55UA 4598 · flown by GoJet 7h 17m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963 48m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → GRR 23:59DL 1711 5h 00m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 27m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 5h 20m 70% 49%
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 1h 15m Chicago ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:49UA 1819 4h 39m 66% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON