tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4783 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic DCA 08:37 GSO 10:06 10% 2% 0.8% no record
OH 5140 PSA DCA 17:45 GSO 19:16 32% 14% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 11:12 → GSO 12:17AA 5796 · flown by Piedmont 5h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:18 → GSO 11:37DL 3052 5h 37m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:27 → ORD 07:35AA 523 2h 17m Chicago ORD 09:52 → GSO 12:49AA 4144 · flown by Envoy 6h 22m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539 5h 14m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060 5h 04m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:54 → GSO 10:41DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 4h 41m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → GSO 14:10AA 5789 · flown by Piedmont 5h 40m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 2h 17m Newark EWR 12:09 → GSO 13:56UA 4489 · flown by GoJet 5h 26m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:35DL 1007 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005 4h 23m 71% 56%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 55m Newark EWR 17:27 → GSO 19:23UA 4509 · flown by GoJet 4h 13m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON