Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4657 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4657 DCA 06:55 → HOU 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1645 DCA 20:25 → HOU 22:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4657 Southwest	DCA 06:55	HOU 09:16	5%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1494 Southwest	DCA 14:05	HOU 16:27	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1645 Southwest	DCA 20:25	HOU 22:49	33%	11%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON