Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5282 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5282 DCA 08:54 → HPN 10:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 5236 DCA 17:00 → HPN 18:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5282 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:54	HPN 10:30	17%	5%	1.4%	76%
AA 5254 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	HPN 14:30	26%	8%	1.4%	60%
AA 5289 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:05	HPN 23:29	31%	11%	3.7%	61%
AA 5236 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:00	HPN 18:28	33%	14%	2.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON