Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5411 DCA 20:43 → IAH 23:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	7%	2%	1.0%	93%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	5%	0.8%	86%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	11%	3%	0.9%	91%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:52	IAH 15:11	15%	5%	0.8%	91%
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:48	IAH 16:11	20%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	20%	9%	1.2%	73%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:25	21%	9%	0.9%	66%
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:43	IAH 23:07	28%	12%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON