Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4701 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4701 DCA 09:55 → IND 11:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4501 DCA 17:16 → IND 19:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:55	IND 11:54	9%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:35	IND 16:35	14%	5%	1.1%	77%
OH 5587 PSA	DCA 12:18	IND 14:16	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:35	IND 21:30	21%	8%	2.0%	71%
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:16	IND 19:15	22%	8%	2.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON