Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4629 DCA 18:37 → JFK 19:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:02	JFK 07:25	3%	2%	1.4%	93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	4%	2%	1.4%	94%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:20	JFK 07:28	7%	3%	1.4%	91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:06	JFK 12:29	10%	3%	1.5%	94%
B6 8360 JetBlue	DCA 00:07	JFK 01:13	11%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:59	JFK 14:21	19%	6%	1.5%	72%
YX 5853 Republic	DCA 17:03	JFK 18:26	26%	9%	3.0%	no record
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:37	JFK 19:56	28%	9%	3.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON