tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2149 American DCA 07:56 LAS 09:56 12% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 2380 Southwest DCA 17:15 LAS 19:09 44% 12% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 01m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 99% 76%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 06:20 → JFK 07:28B6 254 3h 32m New York JFK 11:00 → LAS 13:43B6 511 10h 23m 99% 73%
FrontierDetails → DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01F9 685 59m Denver DEN 10:00 → LAS 11:07F9 1993 7h 07m 89% 72%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 23m Chicago ORD 09:09 → LAS 10:57UA 2811 7h 27m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 10h 17m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:16 → PDX 20:04AS 9 51m Portland PDX 20:55 → LAS 23:10AS 774 8h 54m 62% 47%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 16:38 → FLL 19:25B6 1579 1h 02m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:27 → LAS 22:32B6 607 8h 54m 58% 34%
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50AA 3191 46m Phoenix PHX 20:36 → LAS 21:43AA 2106 6h 42m 55% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON