Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1966 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1966 DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3283 DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	18%	3%	0.8%	71%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	22%	7%	1.2%	75%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	31%	10%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12DL 1193	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 40m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 12m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON