Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4403 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 4403 DCA 06:52 → LGA 08:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5768 DCA 20:40 → LGA 21:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:52	LGA 08:13	4%	2%	1.5%	90%
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 10:08	LGA 11:29	10%	4%	1.8%	no record
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:39	LGA 09:55	13%	3%	1.6%	81%
YX 4546 Republic	DCA 11:26	LGA 12:47	13%	5%	2.1%	no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:00	LGA 12:09	17%	5%	1.8%	75%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:38	LGA 00:02	20%	8%	3.1%	67%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	LGA 15:31	21%	10%	2.4%	62%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:30	LGA 14:53	22%	10%	2.7%	67%
YX 4569 Republic	DCA 15:15	LGA 16:46	22%	9%	2.0%	no record
YX 4636 Republic	DCA 17:24	LGA 18:58	26%	10%	3.0%	no record
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:45	LGA 20:21	27%	11%	3.1%	no record
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 18:59	33%	13%	3.4%	51%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	35%	14%	3.1%	48%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	LGA 21:59	37%	14%	3.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON