Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3627 at 17:09, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3627 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 17:09	LIT 19:00	23%	7%	1.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 56m	99%	83%
American Details →	DCA 06:23 → CLT 07:53AA 1521	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy	7h 22m	100%	81%
American Details →	DCA 07:00 → DFW 09:26AA 1839	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:36 → LIT 13:00AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	99%	81%
American Details →	DCA 09:57 → DFW 12:22AA 795	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:20AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	8h 23m	100%	78%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 31m Houston	IAH 09:44 → LIT 11:14UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 14m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:52 → LIT 18:30DL 2061	7h 03m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	DCA 13:30 → LGA 14:53DL 5747 · flown by Republic	2h 54m New York	LGA 17:47 → LIT 19:54DL 4902 · flown by Endeavor	7h 24m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	48m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	4h 48m	58%	41%
United Details →	DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193	58m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → LIT 23:25UA 4542 · flown by GoJet	5h 15m	45%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON