Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3447 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3447 DCA 06:05 → MCI 07:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1331 DCA 19:34 → MCI 21:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3447 Southwest	DCA 06:05	MCI 07:53	3%	1%	3.3%	no record
AA 2853 American	DCA 07:31	MCI 09:26	9%	3%	2.5%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	DCA 13:58	MCI 15:52	18%	6%	2.8%	no record
WN 2316 Southwest	DCA 15:20	MCI 17:08	27%	7%	1.3%	no record
OH 5423 PSA	DCA 20:17	MCI 22:16	32%	14%	3.7%	no record
WN 1331 Southwest	DCA 19:34	MCI 21:22	33%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON