Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1500 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1500 DCA 06:00 → MCO 08:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2523 DCA 18:55 → MCO 21:17 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1500 Southwest	DCA 06:00	MCO 08:30	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	7%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:00	MCO 09:22	7%	3%	1.0%	82%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	10%	4%	0.9%	79%
WN 1732 Southwest	DCA 11:40	MCO 14:11	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:17	MCO 10:39	16%	4%	0.9%	74%
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 11:00	MCO 13:35	17%	6%	1.2%	89%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	22%	9%	1.2%	71%
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:48	MCO 17:15	26%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 648 Southwest	DCA 18:50	MCO 21:09	35%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 15:37	MCO 18:05	36%	12%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:07	MCO 22:31	39%	16%	1.7%	57%
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	41%	21%	1.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON