Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2276 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2276 DCA 06:10 → MDW 07:18 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 836 DCA 18:35 → MDW 19:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2276 Southwest	DCA 06:10	MDW 07:18	2%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 381 Southwest	DCA 09:53	MDW 11:00	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 1505 Southwest	DCA 13:00	MDW 14:08	16%	5%	1.4%	no record
WN 473 Southwest	DCA 15:05	MDW 16:13	24%	10%	7.5%	no record
WN 1508 Southwest	DCA 21:00	MDW 22:09	30%	10%	3.1%	no record
WN 836 Southwest	DCA 18:35	MDW 19:44	33%	11%	6.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON