Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1299 DCA 15:09 → MIA 18:01 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	6%	3%	1.1%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:44	7%	4%	1.1%	96%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	20%	4%	1.8%	84%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:55	MIA 12:39	22%	5%	4.0%	93%worse than usual
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	33%	8%	4.8%	76%
AA 2214 American	DCA 21:12	MIA 23:58	35%	13%	1.3%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:57	MIA 16:49	40%	13%	3.9%	62%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	40%	17%	2.4%	67%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:35	MIA 20:31	41%	15%	1.8%	no record
AA 582 American	DCA 19:05	MIA 21:48	43%	16%	1.6%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 15:09	MIA 18:01	45%	17%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON