Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1493 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1493 DCA 07:25 → MKE 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5080 DCA 20:59 → MKE 22:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1493 Southwest	DCA 07:25	MKE 08:31	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1576 Southwest	DCA 16:20	MKE 17:26	22%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 5656 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:35	MKE 16:46	28%	12%	2.1%	66%
AA 5080 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:59	MKE 22:19	31%	15%	2.5%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON