Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5645 at 15:20 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 5645 DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5373 DCA 22:00 → MSN 23:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5645 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:20	MSN 16:39	17%	5%	1.0%	80%
OH 5032 PSA	DCA 14:47	MSN 16:13	26%	13%	1.7%	no record
AA 5373 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:00	MSN 23:19	34%	17%	2.8%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON