Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1193 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1193 DCA 06:30 → MSP 08:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OH 5390 DCA 20:59 → MSP 22:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1193 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MSP 08:12	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MSP 13:41	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
OH 5183 PSA	DCA 09:22	MSP 11:23	17%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 1523 Delta	DCA 15:00	MSP 16:43	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	22%	12%	0.8%	74%
OH 5652 PSA	DCA 15:22	MSP 17:12	27%	12%	1.8%	no record
OH 5390 PSA	DCA 20:59	MSP 22:50	32%	17%	4.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON